Attack comes despite unilateral ceasefire declared by Libyan government; France’s UN envoy predicts imminent military action following UN authorization for no-fly zone.

LIBYA is ready for a ceasefire with the rebels battling Muammar Gaddafi, but wants to discuss how it will be implemented, deputy foreign minister Khaled Kaaim says.

• Rebels Claim Small Gains Against Qaddafi Forces (March 17, 2011)

• Diplomatic Memo: Clinton, in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, Embraces a Revolt She Once Discouraged(March 17, 2011)

• Times Topics: Libya — The Protests (2011) | Muammar el-Qaddafi

The administration, which remains deeply reluctant to be drawn into an armed conflict in yet another Muslim country, is nevertheless backing a resolution in the Security Council that would give countries a broad range of options for aiding the Libyan rebels, including military steps that go well beyond a no-flight zone.

Administration officials — who have been debating a no-flight zone for weeks — concluded that such a step now would be “too little, too late” for rebels who have been pushed back to Benghazi. That suggests more aggressive measures, which some military analysts have called a no-drive zone, to prevent Colonel Qaddafi from moving tanks and artillery into Benghazi.

The United States is insisting that any military action would have to be carried out by an international coalition, including Libya’s Arab neighbors.

The rapid advance of forces loyal to Colonel Qaddafi, combined with rising calls from the Arab world to prevent a rout of the opposition, has changed the calculations of the administration, which had clung to a belief that interfering in a Middle East uprising could provoke an anti-American backlash.

“The turning point was really the Arab League statement on Saturday,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clintonsaid Wednesday to reporters traveling with her in Cairo. “That was an extraordinary statement in which the Arab League asked for Security Council action against one of its own members.”

Mrs. Clinton said she was hopeful that the Security Council would vote no later than Thursday. The American ambassador to the United Nations, Susan E. Rice, is in intensive negotiations over the language of a resolution, sponsored by Lebanon, another Arab state, and backed by France and Britain.

It is unclear how much the administration is willing to put on the line in Libya, given its deep aversion to being entangled in another war and its clear calculation that Libya does not constitute as vital a security interest to the United States as other countries in the region, notably Egypt or Saudi Arabia. Some administration officials voiced the hope that the mere threat of military action could prompt Colonel Qaddafi to show some restraint.

Still, interviews with several administration officials suggested that events on the ground were forcing its hand. “The regime’s military gains have gotten everyone’s attention,” said a senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

President Obama is under pressure from both foreign leaders and allies in Congress to take decisive action. The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, sent a letter to the United States and other members of the Security Council, urging them to vote for the Lebanese resolution authorizing a no-flight zone, saying that the world had only days, or even hours, to head off a Qaddafi victory.

On Wednesday, one of Colonel Qaddafi’s sons, Seif al-Islam, urged the rebels to leave the country, saying, “Within 48 hours everything will be finished. Our forces are almost in Benghazi.”

Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he regretted that the debate in Washington over how to respond to Libya had dragged on so long, allowing Colonel Qaddafi to regain his footing.

“I don’t like that we’ve lost this time,” Mr. Kerry said during a speech in Washington. “It’s compacted the choices, diminished the options. And it’s changed the state of play somewhat.”

Administration officials contend that a no-flight zone alone would not be effective, in part because they say it could not be set up before April.

Among the other measures being proposed by the United States: sending foreign soldiers to Libya to advise the rebels, or financing them with some of the $32 billion belonging to the Qaddafi regime, which have been frozen by the Treasury Department. Rebels could use the money to buy weapons, officials said.

Neither of these steps, however, would come in time to stave off an assault by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces on Benghazi.

“What everybody is focused on is drawing a line, literally in the sand, around Benghazi, to prevent Qaddafi’s forces from capturing the city and staging a bloodbath,” said Tom Malinowski, the Washington director of Human Rights Watch. “If Qaddafi wins, it could kill the moment in the entire Middle East.”

But more aggressive military options might make it difficult for a resolution to satisfy Russia and China, two veto-wielding members of the Security Council, which have both opposed such measures in the past. Germany, India and other council members have also expressed skepticism about a no-flight zone.

On Wednesday, Russia pressed for a resolution calling for a cease-fire, but was rebuffed, said Vitaly Churkin, the Russian ambassador to the United Nations. He said Security Council members had added elements that were far-reaching and required serious political consideration.

With the United States already fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, the administration is fearful of straining an already overstretched military and of being seen as engaged in nation building in the region. “The United States is pretty busy with two wars, and we don’t want a third,” a senior official said.

But Britain, France, and Lebanon were adamant that time was running out. And Libya’s deputy to the United Nations, Ibrahim Dabbashi, who last month broke with the Qaddafi regime, warned that if the international community did not intervene in the next 10 hours, there was a risk of genocide, as bands of mercenaries sent by Mr. Qaddafi attacked the rebel-held city of Ajdabiya.

Privately, some European officials expressed frustration with the Obama administration, with one saying he believed it was supporting strong measures in an attempt to draw a veto.

The draft resolution would consist of a no-flight zone coupled with a beefing up of sanctions against Libya, including adding more names to the list of Libyan officials who face international travel bans.

Diplomats said a final draft resolution would be worked out Wednesday and likely put to a vote on Thursday. To pass the Security Council, it would need to win nine votes and to avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members: the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

POLICE in Buala, Isabel province confirmed that an elderly man died when he tried to escape during the tsunami warning last week Friday.

The tsunami alert was issued around the Pacific when a giant earthquake measuring 8.9 on the Richter scale hit Honsu in Japan last Friday.

Isabel provincial police commander Gabriel Manelusi said the deceased panicked and allegedly collapsed when he tried to escape to higher ground.

Mr Manelusi confirmed the deceased age 70 years old was from Kolapakisa village in Kia.

“He didn’t die because of the waves but because he panicked when villagers rushed to move to higher ground,” he said.

Mr Manelusi said the death resulted in negligence by people during the warning.

Reports also revealed that a woman patient at the Buala hospital also died on Friday during.

Details of how she died was unavailable.

Meanwhile Mr Manelusi said he was not impressed how people in Isabel reacted to the tsunami warning.

“We have received reports from various villages that some people didn’t take the warning last Friday seriously.

“They only tried to escape when the wave arrived which was very dangerous,” he said.

Mr Manelusi said that should not be the way to behave during any tsunami warning because if the waves were bigger people would have been injured or killed.

Three two metre waves swept through the township of Buala and other coastal villages last Friday night, destroying thousands of dollars worth of properties.

Fortunately, no casualties were reported.

Mr Manelusi confirmed that in Buala, the waves have washed up into some shops in the area damaging goods worth thousands of dollars.

Other coastal villages around the province were also battered and filled with debris and sand.

An assessment team including the Provincial Disaster Council, police and other volunteers would be heading out to visit the affected areas today.

Mr Manelusi said three groups would be dispatched to cover different areas.

The first group will be visiting villages from Buala to Kaivanga.

The second group will be visiting villages from Hapadagi to Kia and the third group will be visiting villages from Narabu to Goveo.

The assessment team will be headed by Mr Manelusi

Western countries are urgently considering a number of options for intervention in Libya, ranging from military operations to diplomatic initiatives and stepped-up humanitarian assistance. The overall aim, according to the US, Britain and France, is to prevent further violence against civilians by the Libyan regime, facilitate a peaceful transition to democratic rule, and bring to an end the 41-year reign of ColonelMuammar Gaddafi.

The momentum behind intervention is growing because the fighting that began last month shows no sign of ending, amid indications that better-armed regime forces may be gaining the upper hand.

Aid agencies say the humanitarian situation is worsening, with shortages of food, fuel and medicine reported. The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, warned this week of possible “carnage” if the violence develops into a civil war. As a result, political pressure on western leaders to do more is rising.

But the international community, and in particular the 28-member Natoalliance, has not yet reached a consensus on the best course of action. All are fearful of involvement in another war with the Afghan conflict still raging.

Western governments are mindful of the Iraq war, and are worrying about the ramifications of renewed intervention in a Muslim country. Regional organisations such as the Arab League and the African Union have failed to take a lead, while the emerging powers, principally China, are keeping their heads down.

Increased intervention could decisively swing the battle in favour of the rebels. Or, if mishandled, it could strengthen Gaddafi, alienate Muslim opinion, and undermine the credibility of the revolt. So what to do?

No-fly zone

This is the most discussed of the “military” options. In theory such a zone could cover all of the country, or just the major coastal cities, or notional corridors for transporting relief supplies. Britain and France are pushing this, and Arab League and Libyan rebel leaders are in favour. The US and other Nato allies are more cautious. Ivo Daalder, US ambassador to Nato, says it would have limited effectiveness. Robert Gates, the Pentagon chief, says Gaddafi’s air defences would have to be destroyed first – tantamount to declaring war. It is also unlikely, unless the regime commits an egregious act against civilians on a scale not seen so far, that China and Russia would give support. Turkey is opposed. The zone would be difficult to set up and dangerous to enforce, and would probably work no better than similar schemes in Bosnia and Iraq.

Bomb first, think later

Leading US senators and ex-officials, anxious that Gaddafi may survive, Houdini-like, to fight another day, are pressing Obama to get tough. Democrat John Kerry said US bombers could “crater airports and runways”. Republican John McCain wants to ensure Gaddafi is unseated. Others have proposed arm drops to rebels (in violation of the UN arms embargo the US and Britain helped impose) or missile strikes on “high-value” targets such as those launched on Tripoli and Benghazi in 1986, when Ronald Reagan tried to kill Gaddafi after the bombing of US troops in a Berlin disco. For the most part, these are reckless proposals that would almost certainly make matters worse.

Covert operations

Western countries, with the US in the lead, could make life difficult for Gaddafi in a number of ways without directly engaging him militarily. These include cyber warfare attacks involving the jamming of military signals, communications and ground-to-air radio and the disruption of telephone and computer networks. The US and Israel have (alleged) proven expertise in this area, as shown by the success of the Stuxnet bug that disrupted Iran’s nuclear programme.

Intelligence gathering and sharing through satellite surveillance and intelligence sources on the ground is another way of quietly supporting the opposition.

Daalder says Nato awacs (airborne surveillance planes) have been ordered to provide round-the-clock coverage of Libya “to have a better picture of what’s really going on in this part of the world”. The US national security agency, the world’s leading eavesdropper, is surely already providing electronic intercepts of Libyan leadership conversations which could be shared with opponents.

The insertion of special operations forces is another option, though it will never be discussed in public. The extensive “covert ops” experience of eliminating Taliban field commanders in Afghanistan could be applied on specific Libyan battlefronts, if so desired. In such a case the SAS would not be deployed as tame escorts (as happened in eastern Libya last week) but as silent killers. Assassination of the heavily guarded Gaddafi is probably too difficult, and in any case politically problematic. Intelligence sharing and other non-violent covert methods of assisting rebels and helping end fighting are useful tools.

Soft power

The remaining, simpler options are easily the best – and easiest to choose. They include co-ordinated international diplomatic efforts to talk to opposition leaders, build personal and political ties with the Benghazi council, advise on organisation and outreach as rebel-held territory expands, and help create a roadmap towards a post-Gaddafi, democratic future. Soft power options also involve stepping up immediate humanitarian relief operations and evolving plans for long-term development assistance. The EU is already thinking along these lines. Friday’s summit will discuss additional aid, lower trade barriers, and more flexible immigration rules for countries such as Libya that eventually embrace a democratic path. The Arab League and Gulf Co-operation Council should be making similar plans. According to Daalder, Nato’s primary focus, too, is an expanding humanitarian effort in Libya, using its unmatched sealift and airlift capabilities to bring supplies into the country, extract distressed foreign nationals, and assist UN aid agencies and NGOs. This is on the agenda of Thursday’s Nato defence ministers meeting. Meanwhile, spreading the word that western countries are there to help, not to take over or subvert the revolution, is vital. Gaddafi has been using propaganda to great effect. A media counter-offensive is overdue.Such methods take longer and are less dramatic than other options. And they must sometimes be combined with “hard power”, for example to protect humanitarian transport corridors with air power. But because they are non-confrontational and must be negotiated they have a greater chance of achieving lasting change.