The Native Iowan

Have a running conversation with a wise friend in which we contemplate, discuss, argue over the “State” of planetary affairs. The cool thing about this particular friend is he possesses no Derangement Syndrome symptoms. He thinks well, understands info, enjoys research…

Wish I could say the same about more people I know and interact with…

My friend tends to lean away from the USofA, Trump, and the current American trajectory.

One recent discussion tabled the idea that “Russia is cleaning up” as the US gets bogged down with Iran. That China and Russia would be the real winners of the Iranian change of regime.

I shall take a look at this idea, try to stay on-topic, not get distracted by tangent topics… lets see if I can… I’ll rely on GROK to help me have a look at all of this…

Lets look at China’s recent energy situation: In 2025, China’s crude oil imports reached a record high, averaging around 11.55–11.6 million barrels per day (bpd) (totaling about 557–577 million tons for the year). This represented a solid increase of approximately 4.4–4.9% compared to 2024 (when it was around 11.1 million bpd). The surge was driven by factors like low global oil prices, geopolitical tensions prompting stockpiling, refinery expansions, and oversupply in the market. December 2025 alone saw a record monthly high of about 13.18 million bpd, up 17% year-over-year. A significant portion of the 2025 growth (around 430,000 bpd according to analysts like Rystad Energy) went toward building strategic stockpiles rather than immediate refining demand, as China sought to buffer against supply risks.Moving into 2026, the upward trend has continued strongly in the early months. January–February 2026 imports totaled 96.93 million tons (about 11.99 million bpd average), marking a 15.8–16% increase year-over-year from the same period in 2025. This reflects ongoing high refinery throughput and further stockpiling amid global uncertainties (including Middle East tensions affecting routes like the Strait of Hormuz).

So China has been “preparing for war”. Stockpiling in preparation for what was on the cards? Does this tells us that China knew what was to come, what was going to happen in Iran?

Lets look at Russia’s recent energy situation: 2025 overall: Russian crude oil production was largely flat or saw a slight decline compared to 2024. It averaged around 10.3–10.4 million barrels per day (bpd) earlier in the year but faced downward pressure from OPEC+ voluntary cuts, Western sanctions (including on major producers like Rosneft and Lukoil), reduced drilling activity (lowest in three years), and a strong ruble hurting revenues. Outlooks for 2026 vary, but many point to modest growth or recovery later in the year: Production is not surging; it’s more constrained by OPEC+ agreements (extended cuts through 2026) and external pressures, though some rebound is anticipated if market conditions improve

What do these constraints ex-Iran mean to the global energy market: We hear daily that 20% of world oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea). Most primarily flows to Asian markets, with the vast majority destined for a handful of major importers.Under normal conditions (pre-any recent disruptions in 2026), around 20 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products transit the strait—representing about 20-25% of global seaborne oil trade and roughly one-fifth of world oil consumption. The top destinations are overwhelmingly Asian economies heavily reliant on Middle Eastern (Persian Gulf) supplies from producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, and Qatar.

What do these constraints ex-Iran mean to the US energy market: US crude oil imports average about 6.2–6.6 million bpd (e.g., ~6.17 million bpd annual average in 2025. The sources are heavily concentrated in the Western Hemisphere for proximity, pipeline access, and lower geopolitical risk. Together, Canada + Mexico account for ~67–70% of US crude imports. Imports from the Persian Gulf (including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, etc.) total only about ~8% of US crude imports. Persian Gulf imports are a small fraction, and disruptions there (like recent 2026 events) have minimal direct supply impact on the US but can still raise global prices (affecting US pump prices indirectly via world oil benchmarks).

In summary: Unlike China (heavily reliant on Middle East/Strait of Hormuz flows), the US sources most of its imported oil from friendly, nearby neighbors in North America. This diversification, plus record domestic production, reduces vulnerability to distant chokepoints like Hormuz

OK, so the world is shuddering from the “War in Iran”. Prices for energy/ fuel are going up. Supply for some places (Asia) is under threat of being disrupted. I know there are many, many considerations world-wide, and that I am taking a simplified approach to all this. There are many more metrics to consider. Oil is not the only consideration, but it is a big one.

I think we should seriously consider how the departure, from the global stage, of the World’s Leading Supporter for Islamic Terrorism means to one and all. A world without a Jihadist Iran… changes a lot, quickly.

One more thing I feel is important… What does the future look like? What will the future look like? Globally I think we are heading toward a time of shifting spheres of influence. A new world order?

I very much see a change in the way foreign affairs takes place. There was once an ideal of a “global world order”. Rules and Laws and agreements and conventions aimed to keep all honest have not worked. For ages we have known that our global systems are outdated, nonfunctional. Trade has become as much of a weapon as bombs. The way we wage War is changing (again)… Drones that cost a pittance cause huge damage. One drone-pilot can control multiple armed units. AI changes the scene big-time. Manufacturing and distribution has been waiting for change a long time. We have been operating in a 20th Century manner for about 25 years too long.

The future… we know that “strong-man” systems do not age well. I think of Stalin, I think of Russia…

Thinking about Russia: Without chasing the hard facts…. Russia has been run by a “strong man”, a dictator, a Party Leader, a murderous villain … for a long time. He has done a good job of “removing” all threats to his control, his reign. He is feared without a doubt. But is he in control. AND… does he have an exit strategy, a future succession plan? Not sure he has the luxury. He has only power and control. I don’t think he has a future. The history of Josef Stalin in very interesting. His succession was a horrible, bloody mess. Putin has always reminded me of Stalin. Putin will not live forever. He will probably rule as long as he lives. Not much of a future for him, a decade at most…which makes RUSSIA’S future VERY QUESTIONABLE.

Thinking of China: Much like Russia, China is run by a “strongman”. What happens when he can no longer hold tight to power?

And Cuba: Same and different. Cuba’s future as a Communist satellite may well be ending soon…

???

I see a new World Order in the making.

Wood not War…