The Native Iowan

November 24^th, a Friday here in Aus. If I was in the US0fA it’d be Thanksgiving Thursday. 

Here, in the land of Aus it’s a drizzlly, overcast, chilly morning. 

I am ruminating, again, on the “Green” world we supposedly live in, are moving toward. Of course, nothing new, but my take on it all is that “green is not green”. It is a marketing ploy that has been doing pretty good at convincing the world that slight of a green hand = wealth distribution.

Or such is my semi-literate take on it all… I’m not saying I definitely know the Global Warming gig is a scam. I am saying that I remain unconvinced, on many levels, that we have this all sorted, under control, and the $$ being invested is wisely spent.

I am on this topic due to a visit from an old friend. My dear Kiwi friend spent time as a volunteer on Vella la Vella. We met on the MV Iu Mi Nao in 1984. I checked but cannot find a decent pict of the old, clapped out ferry, that was old and clapped out when it arrived in the Solomons in the 1970s. I am certain all my faithful readers that experienced the Iu Mi Nao hold fond memories of the “30 hour cruise” that was the weekly Honiara to Gizo run.

When we met, my Kiwi friend and I were both young, green, learning, full of useless education, and totally “liberal”. We shared views and points of view… we both married “island babes”, loved boats and the ocean and being on and in the briny-blue. We have been friends since we met.

One of the rare people that visited while living at Gracie’s village on the very remote, north side of Choiseul, we did a multi-day crossing between North Choiseul and Liapari… in a “fibro-canoe”, loaded to the gills, powered by a 9.9hp OBM. We crossed a lot of water in a small, under powered vessel. We were both lucky, stupid, ignorant, and on that trip very lucky… did I say lucky?

So after a few decades he stops by for a visit. And the fun (fun?) began… My dear old friend decided I needed to be converted into the green-new-world. The Green New World of electric vehicles, solar power, no fossil fuels, zero carbon emissions, higher cost of living. I am told to “think of your grandchildren, what sort of world are you going to leave them?” I needed to read periodicals such as The Economist, The Guardian, The NY Times. Like a proselytiser, preaching the gospel of green, I needed my demons released, converted, defeated.

After dinner, day 1, as I voiced my unconvinced position, I was offered “IRREFUTABLE FACTS” that Global Warming was killing the planet”. CO2 was the devil. Climate Change was a big problem, was real, man-made, immediate, and reversible IF…

The next day when I asked for the irrefutable facts I was told to “look them up yourself”.

Ok, brakes on, old friendships intact, respect given and taken but… when someone first says they “have the facts”, then tell me to “look them up myself”, I stop taking it all seriously. I listened politely (over 3days), always read (try to read) what ever is suggested, and have fun simply playing the devils advocate. We’re not going to solve anything or agree on much so why get yer knickers in a twist? Have fun. Might even learn something new…

Allow me to articulate the discussion(s) without emotion – er, well, with as little emotion as possible. 

I start with the premise as purported/ preached by the advocates and acolytes of the green-dream…

1) The Globe is warming.

2) Global warming is man-made, that is to say the harm, the damage, the warming is anthropogenic.

3) The anthropogenic actions causing the Global warming are emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere.

4) The CO2 emitted is due to the burning of carbon based fuels such as coal, gasoline, diesel, natural gas, wood, peat, or other “fossil fuels”.

5) IF we cease the burning of said fuels, we can reverse the trends of death and destruction and doom.

6) IF we do not reverse the trends of burning said fuels, we shall all perish. Very soon.

Ok, so the future is bleak. Mankind has been shitting in its own nest too long, and IF we dont change our ways the end is coming, predictable, close at hand.

The task at hand is to forsake the fuels that have taken mankind from darkness, the fuels that were the foundation of the industrial revolution, the urbanisation of the world, the creation of mass travel… Cease all carbon based fuel burning and we shall survive, thrive, exist…  Its called “Net ZERO”.

As near as I can tell, that’s the main “WORD” of the Green gospel.

Where do I stand in relation to it all? 

As a centrist I claim I look at all sides of all debates. And my several years of “study”on this topic leaves me unconvinced that the Pro-Green arguments hold much water. Mainly because the ire predictions have mostly been full of BS. For me, the problem has not been adequately identified, is there even a real problem? As well, no cost effective and viable solution has been tabled. No replacement to Fossil Fuels has been established. Decades of discussion on hydrogen power cells, massive batteries, magic wands… nothing to convince me… YET… it is always “yet”… and IF… IF…

So I read, research, think, listen, watch…

My research methods are simple: First and foremost I disregard, dispose of any info I consider to be blatantly sensationalistic… things like: “We all Die in 7years IF we don’t change now”….  Recently we saw: “Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024”

from 2014:  Apocalypse Now: The World Will Definitely End In 7 Years The World Is Going To End Within 7 Years, Says Newspaper That Often Predicts Apocalypse Ryan Barrell— The Huffington Post UK 26/11/2014 11:51am GMT

There are more headlines like these. Left and Right. Sensational, impossible to refute or prove. Rhetorical headlines that do not inform, do not education. Intended to frighten the population, to scare and herd the bovines and sheep. 

And because I grabbed one from 2014, I’ll check and see what the cost of the Green-Deal so far has been… 

Damn, I cant get a reliable number. My searches send me to propagandistic sites and reports that explain how good we are doing, using nice graphs and charts, showing progress, aiming for those elusive “net zero” results. I find nothing that can give me a sense of how much has been spent. A quantum, a value, a number. Either it’s not available or, perhaps has been conveniently misplaced?

How much has the NET ZERO target cost thus far? What will the total cost be?

It is undoubtedly in the Billions. Maybe even in the trillions?

Because these numbers, the numeric information supporting the Green-Dream is so elusive, I remain unconvinced.

I happen to have some old files at hand, let me see what is costing…

In March 2019 power here cost: *general use cost = .255/kWh *supply charge = .99/pday * solar metering charge = .07/pday * feed-in credit = .106/kWh

In November 2023 power here cost *general use cost = .320430/kWh *supply charge = .1.339910/pday * solar metering charge = .085260/pday * feed-in credit = ..0500/kWh

Here is what I see over 4+years:

	2019	2023		change +/-	value of change
general use	0.255	0.32043		30%	0.06543
supply charge	0.99	1.33991		35%	0.34991
metering charge	0.07	0.08526		20%	0.01526
feed in credit	0.106	0.05		50%	0.056

I need to point out, confess that for bean-counting reasons I have used domestic PV systems for many years. Decades even. I know when a PV system is a cost saver, and when it is not. The reason I have invested in PV here in Aus is because it is heavily subsidised.

So, being unconvinced that a) we have defined the problem, or b) we have established a solution, I cannot think that spending mega-bucks does much but cost everyone more, on every thing.

Has the $$ spent on this green-dream changed anything? CO2 emissions, as near as I can tell, will never be ZERO. Not with coal use skyrocketing in China and India … these two countries represent over 60% of all global coal use. Australia represents only 1.5% of global consumption. Does Aus pushing for net ZERO do anything at all, globally? The rhetoric does not make sense to me. I remain unconvinced…

#	Country	Yearly Coal Consumption (MMcf)	World Share	Cubic Feet Per Capita
1	China	4,319,921,826,000	50.5 %	3,081.50
2	India	966,288,692,600	11.3 %	721.85
3	United States	731,071,000,000	8.5 %	2,234.25
4	Germany	257,488,592,900	3.0 %	3,127.46
5	Russia	230,392,143,100	2.7 %	1,587.72
6	Japan	210,559,949,300	2.5 %	1,658.03
7	South Africa	202,298,474,200	2.4 %	3,585.44
8	South Korea	157,124,158,500	1.8 %	3,062.25
9	Poland	148,799,901,400	1.7 %	3,861.71
10	Australia	129,642,679,100	1.5 %	5,358.09
11	Turkey	116,877,929,300	1.4 %	1,442.59
12	Indonesia	102,623,737,100	1.2 %	391.92
13	Kazakhstan	86,633,849,830	1.0 %	4,792.08
14	Taiwan	72,649,581,410	0.8 %	3,079.09
15	Ukraine	59,357,188,880	0.7 %	1,323.95
16	Vietnam	56,641,097,040	0.7 %	608.22
17	Czech Republic (Czechia)	49,418,771,720	0.6 %	4,694.21
18	Serbia	43,189,608,110	0.5 %	5,763.77
19	Canada	42,907,416,750	0.5 %	1,188.13
20	Thailand	42,674,985,870	0.5 %	604.40
21	United Kingdom	41,459,830,190	0.5 %	631.48
22	Greece	38,077,094,330	0.4 %	3,542.14
23	Bulgaria	35,234,236,840	0.4 %	4,862.59
24	Malaysia	33,022,853,070	0.4 %	1,047.47
25	Brazil	27,275,972,010	0.3 %	131.86
26	Romania	26,886,238,620	0.3 %	1,358.04
27	Mexico	22,478,332,230	0.3 %	184.98
28	Philippines	22,372,483,760	0.3 %	213.32
29	Spain	21,948,094,410	0.3 %	472.27
30	Italy	18,787,634,320	0.2 %	312.51
31	Netherlands	18,203,547,340	0.2 %	1,063.01
32	Chile	14,077,601,010	0.2 %	778.46
33	France	12,900,349,260	0.2 %	201.60
34	Hong Kong	12,303,072,610	0.1 %	1,654.54
35	Hungary	11,663,542,110	0.1 %	1,188.33
36	Colombia	11,385,457,170	0.1 %	239.06
37	North Korea	10,707,839,340	0.1 %	421.74
38	Pakistan	10,199,674,430	0.1 %	47.77
39	Israel	10,167,719,520	0.1 %	1,246.20
40	Bosnia and Herzegovina	9,466,163,184	0.1 %	2,719.39
41	Mongolia	8,823,723,592	0.1 %	2,912.55
42	Morocco	7,153,991,900	0.1 %	203.78
43	Slovakia	6,708,666,633	0.1 %	1,235.21
44	North Macedonia	5,987,017,899	0.1 %	2,837.19
45	Finland	5,310,768,554	0.1 %	966.43
46	Portugal	5,290,177,075	0.1 %	511.98
47	Laos	5,247,933,857	0.1 %	761.52
48	Uzbekistan	4,770,797,680	0.1 %	151.68
49	Slovenia	4,143,583,290	0.0 %	1,982.56
50	Belgium	4,035,556,910	0.0 %	356.60
51	Denmark	3,985,952,960	0.0 %	698.45
52	Austria	3,886,745,060	0.0 %	444.89
53	Zimbabwe	3,388,555,286	0.0 %	234.46
54	Sweden	2,857,190,916	0.0 %	287.06
55	New Zealand	2,765,589,930	0.0 %	592.45
56	Ireland	2,474,685,950	0.0 %	524.77
57	United Arab Emirates	2,454,173,243	0.0 %	272.86
58	Kyrgyzstan	2,447,128,200	0.0 %	406.61
59	Sri Lanka	2,295,009,420	0.0 %	107.12
60	Bangladesh	2,099,900,000	0.0 %	13.14
61	Afghanistan	1,871,722,380	0.0 %	54.04
62	Guatemala	1,751,570,590	0.0 %	107.52
63	Cambodia	1,625,907,250	0.0 %	104.06
64	Puerto Rico	1,565,870,822	0.0 %	456.16
65	Tajikistan	1,511,267,010	0.0 %	173.20
66	Montenegro	1,500,243,910	0.0 %	2,369.07
67	Iran	1,472,686,160	0.0 %	17.68
68	Argentina	1,403,477,115	0.0 %	32.14
69	Botswana	1,356,943,610	0.0 %	576.83
70	Peru	1,267,656,500	0.0 %	40.72
71	Dominican Republic	1,215,241,660	0.0 %	115.43
72	Croatia	1,179,627,009	0.0 %	279.28
73	New Caledonia	1,155,220,880	0.0 %	4,071.29
74	Norway	824,527,880	0.0 %	157.46
75	Mauritius	772,967,330	0.0 %	597.39
76	Egypt	769,412,380	0.0 %	7.71
77	Singapore	761,679,182	0.0 %	133.35
78	Belarus	681,227,580	0.0 %	70.17
79	Madagascar	566,337,256	0.0 %	22.21
80	Ethiopia	539,255,173	0.0 %	5.12
81	Kenya	537,358,860	0.0 %	11.22
82	Myanmar	536,769,855	0.0 %	10.34
83	Senegal	448,640,170	0.0 %	30.41
84	Georgia	419,462,024	0.0 %	111.23
85	Kuwait	387,108,873	0.0 %	95.63
86	Panama	330,693,000	0.0 %	82.13
87	Tanzania	327,860,928	0.0 %	6.03
88	Nepal	283,302,995	0.0 %	10.17
89	Lithuania	272,313,067	0.0 %	92.82
90	Niger	261,247,470	0.0 %	12.49
91	Jordan	242,508,200	0.0 %	24.34
92	Switzerland	199,518,110	0.0 %	23.83
93	Nigeria	193,329,582	0.0 %	1.02
94	Zambia	183,692,986	0.0 %	10.96
95	Honduras	180,778,840	0.0 %	19.11
96	Venezuela	180,696,035	0.0 %	5.88
97	Togo	161,047,737	0.0 %	21.02
98	Eswatini	159,863,179	0.0 %	139.92
99	Moldova	137,788,750	0.0 %	42.72
100	Iceland	136,686,440	0.0 %	407.20
101	Lebanon	135,975,839	0.0 %	21.73
102	Yemen	133,379,510	0.0 %	4.56
103	Saudi Arabia	122,986,931	0.0 %	3.68
104	Bhutan	96,000,000	0.0 %	128.04
105	Albania	95,900,970	0.0 %	33.29
106	Oman	94,990,251	0.0 %	21.60
107	Luxembourg	89,198,115	0.0 %	152.91
108	Benin	87,775,843	0.0 %	7.80
109	Malawi	85,915,364	0.0 %	4.94
110	Jamaica	80,468,630	0.0 %	28.71
111	Latvia	67,861,344	0.0 %	34.39
112	Algeria	27,321,049	0.0 %	0.68
113	Estonia	19,762,405	0.0 %	15.02
114	Ecuador	13,555,288	0.0 %	0.82
115	DR Congo	12,538,033	0.0 %	0.15
116	Mozambique	12,125,410	0.0 %	0.44
117	Syria	5,526,160	0.00 %	0.29
118	Namibia	5,523,724	0.00 %	2.38
119	Tunisia	2,259,332	0.00 %	0.19
120	Cuba	2,066,443	0.00 %	0.18
121	Paraguay	1,679,929	0.00 %	0.27
122	Armenia	1,322,685	0.00 %	0.46
123	Uruguay	436,631	0.000 %	0.13
124	Cyprus	223,541	0.000 %	0.19
125	Trinidad and Tobago	198,416	0.000 %	0.14
126	Azerbaijan	178,010	0.000 %	0.02
127	Costa Rica	109,768	0.000 %	0.02
128	Malta	56,098	0.0000 %	0.12
129	Ghana	17,099	0.0000 %	0.00
130	Fiji	710	0.0000 %	0.00

Sources

• Statistical Review of World Energy – British Petroleum
• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

It’s a long list.

I remain unconvinced.

more later